The labor market in the United States: effects on remittances and consumption in Mexico.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29201/peipn.v7i13.306Keywords:
consumption, remittances, causality, cointegrationAbstract
This study analyzes the long-run causal relationships between United States labor market, remittances and private consumption in Mexico. The revision and estimations were applied to the main productive American sectors in order to find their effect over the Mexican economic variables. Vector Error Correction (VEC) and Vector Autoregressive models allow estimate some positive causal relationship among United States employment, remittances and private consumption. Since VEC incorporate the long-run relationship concept, it is possible to affirm that Mexico has a significant dependence on United States labor market. Private consumption is part of the welfare, consequently the results implies that previous Mexican migration was the short-run answer to the low income and unemployment problem. Nevertheless in the long-run Mexico has a deep dependence on jobs creation in the United States economy.
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