Remesas, inversión extranjera directa y turismo: Algunas interrelaciones de largo plazo con el consumo privado en México

La presente investigación realiza un estudio de causalidad multivariada entre el consumo privado, la inversión extranjera directa, las remesas y los ingresos por turismo. Para ello se instrumenta un Vector de Corrección de Error, el cual permite estudiar la causalidad para series integradas y que además se encuentran cointegradas. Adicionalmente, la metodología permite estudiar tanto la exogeneidad débil de las variables, como el sentido de las interrelaciones causales existentes entre las mismas. Los resultados señalan la presencia de una correlación positiva y causal de la inversión extranjera directa, las remesas y los ingresos por turismo hacia los principales componentes del consumo privado de México: bienes durables, no durables y servicios. En base a dichos resultados es plausible indicar la existencia de evidencia que indica una relación de largo plazo entre una parte del bienestar de la población mexicana y una parte de los ingresos que llegan al país del exterior.

Consumo, inversión extranjera directa, remesas, turismo, causalidad

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