The aerospace industry in Mexico post COVID 19: Analysis and prediction using an ARMA model

Abstract

The research analyzes the dynamics of the aerospace industry, focusing on
the actions taken by said industry in the post-COVID19 stage. An ARIMA
model is estimated for the analysis of time series with monthly periods to
obtain a forecast regarding the production of aerospace equipment in
Mexico. Since the ARMA model allows the treatment of past values, both
short and long term, being susceptible to analysis, so the methodology
proposes the use of this stochastic modeling. Preliminary results show
an accelerated growth rate in the production of aerospace equipment to
later have a considerable drop during the development of the COVID19
pandemic.