Can Free Trade Guarantee Reaping the Gains from Trade?

Las ganancias estáticas y dinámicas del comercio son las razones teóricas que explican por qué los países se embarcan en el libre comercio, esperando que éste promueva la industrialización y el crecimiento. No hay, sin embargo, nada en la teoría convencional del comercio internacional que garantice que dichas ganancias se materializarán y aún cuando lo hagan pueden no acelerar ni la industrialización ni el crecimiento. Esto porque existe un número de costos que la misma teoría omite o ignora. Ellos se refieren, inter alia, a los efectos monetarios de la especialización del comercio en la balanza de pagos, la pérdida de autonomía política y a la desindustrialización y el crecimiento sin empleo. Cuando los costos del libre comercio superan sus beneficios, la dilación del desarrollo económico es el resultado más probable. Para evitar esto, la intervención gubernamental es necesaria. En este trabajo, al contrastar las experiencias de México y China desde que se embarcaron en el libre comercio, los argumentos destacados son apoyados. Esta comparación permite destacar el tipo de políticas que economías en desarrollo abiertas, y las aún cerradas, deben implementar si desean garantizar las ganancias del comercio, alcanzando así el verdadero progreso.

Libre comercio, ganancias del comercio, industrialización, intervención gubernamental, China, México

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