¿Por qué México tiene que orientar su crecimiento económico hacia a las exportaciones en el T-MEC? evidencia empírica 1993-2019

Esta investigación examina la existencia de un vínculo causal entre el Producto Interno Bruto y Exportaciones para los países que integran el T-MEC con base en técnicas de cointegración y causalidad de Granger. El análisis se extiende al agregar el método de estimación de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios totalmente modificados (FMOLS). La evidencia empírica muestra que el Producto Interno Bruto y Exportaciones de Canadá, México y EU. son I(1), pero al aplicar pruebas de cointegración, sólo las variables pertenecientes a México estaban cointegradas. Por último se aplican pruebas de causalidad y se encuentra que el Producto Interno Bruto y las Exportaciones de México tienen una relación causal bidireccional. Por lo tanto, las políticas económicas destinadas a favorecer las exportaciones, también favorecerán al crecimiento económico y viceversa.

exportaciones, crecimiento económico, modelos series de tiempo, cointegración, métodos econométricos

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