On Harrod’s natural rate of growth and the role of demand: an empirical assessment
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Contenido principal del artículo
El presente articulo parte de la contribución original de Harrod (1939), y procede a contrastar la hipótesis de endogeneidad de la tasa natural de crecimiento del producto vis-à-vis fluctuaciones de la demanda agregada para el caso de las economías del TLCAN (Canadá, Estados Unidos y México). Los resultados empíricos muestran que el producto potencial reacciona ante fluctuaciones en la tasa de crecimiento observada, lo cual sugiere que la deflación puede inducir estancabilización (estancamiento con estabilización), dado que la depresión de la demanda efectiva y el empleo provocan efectos nocivos en la tasa de crecimiento económico observado. La omisión del papel de la demanda no contribuye a una mejor comprensión de los determinantes del crecimiento económico cuando la oferta es elástica.
Barro R. (1990), "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, no. 5, Part. 2: The Problem of Development: A Conference of the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Systems, S103-S125, (October).
Barro, R. (1991), "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 106, no. 2, pp. 407-443, (May).
Castillo, R. and J. Herrera (2005), "Efecto del gasto público sobre el gasto privado en México", Estudios Económicos, vol. 20, no. 2, 173-196.
Boisguillebert, P. P. (1695), Le détail de la France; la cause de la diminution de ses biens et la facilité du remède, Paris.
Dray, M. and A. P. Thirlwall (2011), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M. E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 451-468, (April).
Harrod, R. (1939), "An Essay in Dynamic Theory", Economic Journal, (March).
Harrod, R. (1960), "Second Essay in Dynamic Theory", Economic Journal, vol. 70, no. 278, (June), pp. 277-293.
Kaldor, N. (1955-56), "Alternative Theories of Distribution", The Review of Economic Studies, pp. 83-100.
Kaldor, N. (1957), "A Model of Economic Growth", Economic Journal, vol. 67, pp. 591-624.
Keynes, J. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, BH&J.
Lanzafame, M. (2010), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth in the Regions of Italy", International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 533-552.
León-Ledesma, M. and A. P Thirlwall (1998), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth", (November), Mimeo.
León-Ledesma, M. and A. P. Thirlwall (2002), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth", Cambridge Journal of Economics, no. 26, pp. 441-459.
León-Ledesma, M. A. and A. P. Thirlwall (2002), "Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous? A Reply", BNL Quarterly Review, no. 221, (June).
Lucas, R. (1988), "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 22.
Mankiw-Romer-Weil (1992), "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, no. 152.
Marx, K. (1867, 1886, 1894, 1976), Capital, 3 vols., New York, International Publishers.
McCombie, J. S. L, and A. P. Thirlwall (1997), "The Dynamic Harrod Trade Multiplier and the Demand Oriented Approach to Economic Growth: An Evaluation", International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 11, no. 1.
Okun, A. (1962), "Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance", Proceedings of the Business and Finance Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association.
Pacheco-López, P. (2009), "Efectos de la liberalización comercial en el crecimiento económico y la balanza de pagos en América Latina", Investigación Económica, vol. 68, no. 267, (Enero-Marzo).
Pasinetti, L. (1962), "Rate of Profit and Income Distribution in Relation to the Rate of Economic Growth", Review of Economic Studies, vol. XXIX, no. 4, pp. 267-279, as reprinted in L. Pasinetti (1974) Growth and Income Distribution: Essays in Economic Theory, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, pp. 103-120.
Perrotini, I. and D. Tlatelpa (2003), "Crecimiento endógeno y demanda en las economías de América del Norte", Momento Económico, (Julio-Agosto) de 2003, pp. 10-15.
Perrotini, I., J. A. Vázquez and B.L. Avedaño (2008), "In Search of the Developmental State", International Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, no. 3, (Fall).
Perrotini, I., et al. (2011), Estructura económica y estrategias de crecimiento para América Latina con especial énfasis para México, México, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla.
Quesnay, F. (1758), Tableau économique, Paris.
Ricardo, D. (1817), The Works and correspondence of David Ricardo, vol. VIII, ed. Piero Sraffa with the colaboration of M. H. Dobb, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1951.
Romer, P. (1986), "Increasing returns and long-run growth", Journal of Political Economy, (October).
Romer, P. M. (1994), "The origins of endogenous growth", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 8, no. 1, Winter, pp. 3-22.
Smith, A. (1776, 1976), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Chicago, Chicago University Press.
Solow, R. (1956), "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, pp. 65-94.
Swan, T. W. (1956), "Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation", Economic Record, vol. 32, pp. 334-361.
Thirlwall, A. P. (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, Great Britain: Mackays of Chatham.
Thirlwall, A. P. (1995), The Economics of Growth and Development, England: Edward Elgar Publishing Company.
Thirlwall, A. P., and M., Leon-Ledesma (2000), "Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous?", Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. 53 no. 215, ABI/INFORM Global, (December).
Thirlwall, A. P. (2003), La naturaleza del crecimiento económico, FCE.
Verdoorn, P. J. (1949), "Fattori che regolano los svilluppo della produttività del lavoro", L'Industria, no. 1.
Vogel, L. (2009), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth: An Empirical Study for Latin American Countries", International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp.41-53.
Young, A. (1928), "Increasing returns and economic progress", Economic Journal, (December).
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
Contenido principal del artículo
El presente articulo parte de la contribución original de Harrod (1939), y procede a contrastar la hipótesis de endogeneidad de la tasa natural de crecimiento del producto vis-à-vis fluctuaciones de la demanda agregada para el caso de las economías del TLCAN (Canadá, Estados Unidos y México). Los resultados empíricos muestran que el producto potencial reacciona ante fluctuaciones en la tasa de crecimiento observada, lo cual sugiere que la deflación puede inducir estancabilización (estancamiento con estabilización), dado que la depresión de la demanda efectiva y el empleo provocan efectos nocivos en la tasa de crecimiento económico observado. La omisión del papel de la demanda no contribuye a una mejor comprensión de los determinantes del crecimiento económico cuando la oferta es elástica.
Barro R. (1990), "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, no. 5, Part. 2: The Problem of Development: A Conference of the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Systems, S103-S125, (October).
Barro, R. (1991), "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 106, no. 2, pp. 407-443, (May).
Castillo, R. and J. Herrera (2005), "Efecto del gasto público sobre el gasto privado en México", Estudios Económicos, vol. 20, no. 2, 173-196.
Boisguillebert, P. P. (1695), Le détail de la France; la cause de la diminution de ses biens et la facilité du remède, Paris.
Dray, M. and A. P. Thirlwall (2011), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M. E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 451-468, (April).
Harrod, R. (1939), "An Essay in Dynamic Theory", Economic Journal, (March).
Harrod, R. (1960), "Second Essay in Dynamic Theory", Economic Journal, vol. 70, no. 278, (June), pp. 277-293.
Kaldor, N. (1955-56), "Alternative Theories of Distribution", The Review of Economic Studies, pp. 83-100.
Kaldor, N. (1957), "A Model of Economic Growth", Economic Journal, vol. 67, pp. 591-624.
Keynes, J. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, BH&J.
Lanzafame, M. (2010), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth in the Regions of Italy", International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 533-552.
León-Ledesma, M. and A. P Thirlwall (1998), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth", (November), Mimeo.
León-Ledesma, M. and A. P. Thirlwall (2002), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth", Cambridge Journal of Economics, no. 26, pp. 441-459.
León-Ledesma, M. A. and A. P. Thirlwall (2002), "Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous? A Reply", BNL Quarterly Review, no. 221, (June).
Lucas, R. (1988), "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 22.
Mankiw-Romer-Weil (1992), "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, no. 152.
Marx, K. (1867, 1886, 1894, 1976), Capital, 3 vols., New York, International Publishers.
McCombie, J. S. L, and A. P. Thirlwall (1997), "The Dynamic Harrod Trade Multiplier and the Demand Oriented Approach to Economic Growth: An Evaluation", International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 11, no. 1.
Okun, A. (1962), "Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance", Proceedings of the Business and Finance Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association.
Pacheco-López, P. (2009), "Efectos de la liberalización comercial en el crecimiento económico y la balanza de pagos en América Latina", Investigación Económica, vol. 68, no. 267, (Enero-Marzo).
Pasinetti, L. (1962), "Rate of Profit and Income Distribution in Relation to the Rate of Economic Growth", Review of Economic Studies, vol. XXIX, no. 4, pp. 267-279, as reprinted in L. Pasinetti (1974) Growth and Income Distribution: Essays in Economic Theory, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, pp. 103-120.
Perrotini, I. and D. Tlatelpa (2003), "Crecimiento endógeno y demanda en las economías de América del Norte", Momento Económico, (Julio-Agosto) de 2003, pp. 10-15.
Perrotini, I., J. A. Vázquez and B.L. Avedaño (2008), "In Search of the Developmental State", International Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, no. 3, (Fall).
Perrotini, I., et al. (2011), Estructura económica y estrategias de crecimiento para América Latina con especial énfasis para México, México, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla.
Quesnay, F. (1758), Tableau économique, Paris.
Ricardo, D. (1817), The Works and correspondence of David Ricardo, vol. VIII, ed. Piero Sraffa with the colaboration of M. H. Dobb, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1951.
Romer, P. (1986), "Increasing returns and long-run growth", Journal of Political Economy, (October).
Romer, P. M. (1994), "The origins of endogenous growth", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 8, no. 1, Winter, pp. 3-22.
Smith, A. (1776, 1976), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Chicago, Chicago University Press.
Solow, R. (1956), "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, pp. 65-94.
Swan, T. W. (1956), "Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation", Economic Record, vol. 32, pp. 334-361.
Thirlwall, A. P. (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, Great Britain: Mackays of Chatham.
Thirlwall, A. P. (1995), The Economics of Growth and Development, England: Edward Elgar Publishing Company.
Thirlwall, A. P., and M., Leon-Ledesma (2000), "Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous?", Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. 53 no. 215, ABI/INFORM Global, (December).
Thirlwall, A. P. (2003), La naturaleza del crecimiento económico, FCE.
Verdoorn, P. J. (1949), "Fattori che regolano los svilluppo della produttività del lavoro", L'Industria, no. 1.
Vogel, L. (2009), "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth: An Empirical Study for Latin American Countries", International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp.41-53.
Young, A. (1928), "Increasing returns and economic progress", Economic Journal, (December).
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.