Vol. 18 Núm. 38 (2023)

Artículos

Determinantes macroeconómicos y financieros de la morosidad hipotecaria en México

Publicado 02-01-2023

  • Edgar Ortiz
    • ,
  • Francisco López-Herrera
    • ,
  • Margarita María Mosso-Martínez

Edgar Ortiz


Francisco López-Herrera


Margarita María Mosso-Martínez


Resumen

Este trabajo analiza el impacto de un conjunto de variables macroeconómicas y financieras sobre el comportamiento de la morosidad en los créditos hipotecarios otorgados por los seis bancos más importantes de México. La evidencia muestra que la inflación, la tasa de interés, el tipo de cambio, el volumen de las reservas internacionales, el índice bursátil y el número de trabajadores del sector privado que se benefician de la seguridad social, influyen en el comportamiento de la morosidad. Hay algunas diferencias en los efectos de estas variables sobre la morosidad de los seis bancos cubiertos en este estudio, probablemente debido a diferencias en la composición de la cartera y las estrategias para el origen del crédito. Conocer la importancia de estas variables en relación con la morosidad de las carteras hipotecarias puede ser de utilidad para mejorar las decisiones en materia de generación y gestión de créditos hipotecarios, así como para el diseño e implementación de políticas macroeconómicas, financieras y fiscales que mejoren la resiliencia del sector bancario.

Palabras clave

morosidad hipotecaria en México, índices de morosidad, impactos macroeconómicos hipotecarios, deuda vencida, cointegración, regresión cuantílica

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