Vol. 21 No. 43 (2025)

Artículos

Analysis of the semiconductor value chain and its economic impact on Mexican imports

Published 2025-12-31

  • Edgar Ulises Cruz Vázquez
    • ,
  • Miguel Ángel Martínez García
    • ,
  • José Carlos Trejo García

Edgar Ulises Cruz Vázquez
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía.

Miguel Ángel Martínez García
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía

José Carlos Trejo García
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the value chain of the semiconductor industry and the resulting economic impact of semiconductor imports on Mexico, as well as to expose vulnerabilities and identify areas for internal growth. The econometric models and tools implemented in the study included Granger causality tests, multiple regression, panel data analysis, efficiency analysis, and spatial lag models, which facilitated an assessment of the interactions between international and national variables with Mexican imports. According to the econometric results of the study, 68% of current imports and imports from the previous period can be partially explained by the hypothesis of a dominant business inertia at play. Furthermore, the study also revealed that global semiconductor production volume and foreign direct investment contributed positively and significantly to imports. In conclusion, the study finds that excessive reliance on global supply chains represents a critical weakness, susceptible to disruption by geopolitical shocks, and thus poses a risk to Mexico. The strategic recommendation is to develop local production capabilities in Mexico to strengthen resilient local risk mitigation factors, which would ultimately bolster strategic sectors of the national economy and reduce foreign dependence.

 

Keywords

International trade, semiconductors, technology and industrial development, data panel

PDF (Spanish)

References

  1. Brooks, C. (2019). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (4th ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108524872.
  2. Chen, W., & J. Li (2021). Global Semiconductor Dependency in Emerging Economies: Risks and Resilience Strategies. Journal of Global Technology Management.
  3. Clavijo, P. H., & J. Ros (2015). La ley de Thirlwall: una lectura crítica. Investigación Económica.
  4. Dedrick, J.; K. L. Kraemer, & G. Linden (2011). Who Profits from Innovation in the Global Semiconductor Industry? Industrial and Corporate Change, 20(5), 1381–1413.
  5. Doner, R. F., & B. R. Schneider (2021). The Middle-Income Technology Trap: Comparing Semiconductor Industrial Policy in Malaysia and Ireland. World Development, 147, 105629.
  6. Dunning, J. (2000). The eclectic paradigm as an envelope for economic and business theories of MNE activity. International Business Review, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(99)00035-9.
  7. Filippo, A.; C. Guaipatín; L. Navarro, & F. Wyss (2023). Las políticas de desarrollo productivo frente a los nuevos imperativos de las cadenas globales de valor. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (Monografía del BID; 1125). https://doi.org/10.18235/0005148.
  8. Gereffi, G. (1999). International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain. Journal of International Economics, 48(1), 37-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00075-0
  9. Gereffi, G., & T. Sturgeon (2013). Global value chains and industrial policy: The role of emerging economies. In D. K. Elms & P. Low (Eds.), Global Value Chains in a Changing World (pp. 329-360). WTO Publications. https://doi.org/10.30875/091420f7-en.
  10. Greene, W. H. (2018). Econometric Analysis (8th ed.). Pearson Education.
  11. Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of Panel Data (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139839327.
  12. Humphrey, J., & H. Schmitz (2002). Developing country firms in the world economy: Upgrading in global value chains. Globalisation, Production and Poverty, 47(5).
  13. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). (2022). Balanza comercial de mercancías de México.
  14. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). (2024). Balanza comercial de mercancías de México.
  15. Kogut, B. (1984). Normative observations on the international value-added chain and strategic groups. Journal of International Business Studies, 15(2), 151-167. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490488.
  16. Lall, S. (2000). Technological change and industrialisation in the Asian NIES: achievements and challenges. In L. Kim & R. R. Nelson (Eds.), Technology, Learning, & Innovation: Experiences of Asian NIEs (pp. 13-68). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781950555.00014.
  17. Peltzer, & E. L. Blancá (2021). Introducción a la física de semiconductores y dispositivos electrónicos. Editorial de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata (EDULP).
  18. Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance. Free Press.
  19. Porter, M. E. (1998). Clusters and the new economics of competition. Harvard Business Review, 76(6), 77-90.
  20. Romero, I. (2009). Pymes y cadenas de valor globales. Implicaciones para la política industrial en las economías en desarrollo. Análisis Económico, 24(55), 139-167.
  21. Scharfenaker, S., & K. Flamm (2023). Global semiconductor manufacturing supply chain challenges and U.S. policy responses. Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report R47416.
  22. SIA (2021). Global Semiconductor Sales, Units Shipped Reach All-Time Highs in 2021 as Industry Ramps Up Production Amid Shortage*. Semiconductor Industry Association.
  23. Stock, J. H., & M. W. Watson (2019). Introduction to Econometrics (4th ed.). Pearson.
  24. TrendForce (2021b, April 21). Foundry Revenue Projected to Reach Historical High. Entertainment Close-Up.
  25. UNCTAD (2021). Technology and Innovation Report 2021: Catching Technological Waves. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  26. Wong, P. K. (2003). Global production and its impact on domestic capacity building: The semiconductor industry in Singapore. Journal of International Development, 15(2), 273-294.
  27. World Bank (2022). World Development Report 2022: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains. The World Bank Group.

Most read articles by the same author(s)