Vol. 16 No. 32 (2020)

Artículos

Animal Spirits and non-ergodicity for COVID 19 in some states of Mexico

Published 2020-10-28 — Updated on 2020-10-28

  • Genaro Aguilar Gutiérrez
    • ,
  • Sergio Lagunas Puls

Genaro Aguilar Gutiérrez
Universidad Estatal de Campinas de Sao Paulo, Brasil

Sergio Lagunas Puls
Universidad del Caribe

Abstract

Using day-to-day data of the deceases due to COVID-19 throughout Mexico, a preciseness model for prediction of the decease spike is developed in four states of Mexico; 2 of which have a touristic tendency and 2 of which have an industrial tendency. It is predicted that the spike or the “top” of deceases will occur the day 107 of the pandemic in the state of Quintana Roo, and the days 68, 109 and 72 in the states of Baja California Sur, Mexico and Nuevo Le´on. However, findings suggest the non-ergodic behaviour is characteristic to phenomena that rely on human behaviour, due to the “animal spirits” which conduct to irracionality during someone´s decision-making. The evidence points to the necessity of the construction of alternative hypothesis to analize human behaviour in the face of phenomena of uncertainty.

Keywords

uncertainty, ergodicity, animal spirits

PDF (Spanish)

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