Vol. 16 No. 32 (2020)

Artículos

The timing of the economic crisis generated by the SARS-CoV-2: An approach of coincident indicators

Published 2020-10-28 — Updated on 2020-10-28

  • Armando Sánchez Vargas

Armando Sánchez Vargas
Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Abstract

An early warning indicator of the turning points of the Mexican business cycle, the IAEM-MA3, is estimated.

It is calculated using 34 representative variables of economic activity. This indicator allows us to detect the moment of the recession and, together with other predictive models, get conclusions on the depth of the recession and the moment of the recovery. It was found that the recession generated by the SARS-CoV-2 actually started in March 2020 and that its lowest point will be in May. The recession could last only a few months and the recovery of growth to its trend level could be observed until October 2020.

This result is conditioned not only on the performance of economic policy, but also on future outbreaks

that might generate other recessions.

Keywords

Early warning indicator, recession, covid-19, business cycles, turning points, forecasting

PDF (Spanish)

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