Vol. 14 No. 28 (2019)

Artículos

The business cycle and the coincident Index. Use of Hodrick-Prescott and Hamilton filters to Mexico

Published 2019-06-11 — Updated on 2019-06-11

  • Luis Salvador Mondragón Sotelo
    • ,
  • Carlos Eduardo Canfield Rivera
    • ,
  • Jaime Humberto Beltrán Godoy

Luis Salvador Mondragón Sotelo
Universidad Anáhuac, Facultad de Economía y Negocios

Carlos Eduardo Canfield Rivera
Universidad Anáhuac, Facultad de Economía y Negocios

Jaime Humberto Beltrán Godoy
Universidad Anáhuac, Facultad de Economía y Negocios

Abstract

This paper put together a good sample of methodologies for building a coincident index of business cycle for Mexico. This indicator can date the cycle timing and help us to propose new policies and actions for central government and companies once a time we know perfectly the fluctuations of the business and have understood the wright level of risk associated. We use the Hodrick-Prescot index and the Hamilton’s joint to Markov chains to build the index and to measure change regime probabilities for Mexico.

Keywords

economic cycles, business cycles, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Hamilton filter, Markov chains

PDF (Spanish)

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