Data mining to estimate the effect of incorporating the informal economy into the tax regime in Mexico

Abstract

This research results in applying data mining tools and develop indicators to estimate the fiscal convenience of incorporating the informal economy into the tax regime and its impact on the growth of the Mexican economy. The incorporation of the informal economy within the tax regime is a problem worldwide, and the parameters to be followed have not been given due to the conveniences and inconveniences that are presented for its formal incorporation, thereby causing a waste of economic resources that could help to increase the tax revenues of a country and achieve healthy public finances for sustained economic growth in the economies. Within public finances, the importance of properly managing the income and expenses of a country is of vital importance, since, in these, its healthy economy is sustained, which will allow it to have healthy public finances, for its adequate economic development, so if the necessary income is not collected (via taxes) it will have serious problems for its economic viability, as a country. In the case of Mexico, it faces significant problems in the collection of its tax revenues, either because its tax base is not sufficient, or because there are problems with tax evasion. This research will allow the state to detect what role the informal economy plays, and how much it could contribute to public finances. This research bases the hypothesis on the proposal that, if data mining tools are developed and applied to detect income in the informal economy, then the Tax Administration System (SAT) will be able to improve its tax collection. The method used to test this research hypothesis consists of applying data mining to statistics on the informal economy, and developing indicators. It is concluded that the incorporation of the informal economy could improve the capture of tax revenues.